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A Predictive Analysis Based Psephology Report On Bidhan Sabha Election 2021

Published: Tue Mar 09 2021

West Bengal Legislative Assembly (Bidhan Sabha) Election 2021 Pre-Poll Psephology

The West Bengal Bidhan Sabha election 2021 is just around the corner, and it's time for the political endgame!

As every political party gears up to obtain public approval, we at Sheer Analytics and Insights Pvt. Ltd. present our predictive analysis to come to a probable result of the Bidhan Sabha Election 2021. As opposed to the general exit polls, this Bidhan Sabha election projection is based on predictive analysis after analysing the prime factors favouring and disrupting every political party's cause per seat. However, the data for predictive analytics has been collected through a survey. Then every driving and restraining factor has been quantified with each favourite political party per seat.

Buoyed by its spectacular result in West Bengal in the Lok Sabha polls, the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) is preparing a blueprint, including a balance and check mechanism to induct TMC leaders and strengthen its grassroots level organization, winning "at least 250 seats" in the state assembly elections.

However, the saffron party won 18 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal in the recently concluded parliamentary polls, only four less than the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress's 22. Bidhan Sabha's election to the 294-member state assembly is scheduled to be held in 2021.

Push Factors Favouring BJP

According to our analysis, we have come up with a few push factors that might work in BJP's favour:

 Ten years of anti-incumbency will affect swing voters, of which a significant number is expected to favour BJP.
 The massive influx of TMC leaders to BJP will strengthen South Bengal districts for BJP, the earlier TMC bastion.
 Secular Front of India's alliance with the left and Congress will divide minority votes. This alliance will be a crucial factor favouring BJP in minority-dominated constituencies.
 CAA will bring in favour of immigrant Hindus.
 The early arrival of central forces.
 Mamata Banerjee's injury will restrict her in widespread campaigning, obviously favouring BJP.
 BJP might use central business policies to lure voters.

Push Factors Favouring TMC

As per our analysis, we have made a list of a few push factors that may work in TMC's favour:

 There is a substantial existing voter base that worships Mamata and would like to re-elect her.
 TMC is playing the Bengali insider well, which might resonate amongst the semi-urban and rural population.
 Existing State Machinery.
 Huge Appeasement politics may pay dividends.
 A large chunk of women voters among the semi-urban and rural population likely to vote on Mamata Banerjee's name.
 Rising fuel prices can impact the mentality of voters.